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Polymarket's newest music markets paint a cautious picture for chart toppers. BTS's "SWIM" faces steep odds against hitting Billboard Hot 100 #1 for the week of April 25, with bettors at 98.4% sure it misses. The track's massive streams haven't convinced traders it's the one to dethrone whatever's ruling. Here's the official MV that's racked up nearly 100 million views already.
North West, Kanye's daughter, is the surprise frontrunner in album release bets. 66% odds she drops a new project by May 31. Kid's got bars. Check her feature on dad's "Talking," directed by her no less.
Charli XCX stays quiet on new albums, 59% no announcement by July 31. Fans guess what's next after Brat success. Billie collab still bangs.
Taylor Swift's debut re-record looks doubtful at 56.5% no for 2026. Tim McGraw nostalgia hits different.
Eurovision 2026 markets explode with volume. Sweden unlikely to snag televote (97.5% no), Czechia jury (96.9% no). Nordic drama brews. Bruno Mars sits out global #1s this April (90% no), but his Gaga duet lives on stage.
Katy Perry pregnancy rumors dead at 94.5% no by June.
Winners (Highest Probability)
| Market | Predicted Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| BTS SWIM Hot 100 | misses #1 week of April 25 | 98.4% |
| Sweden Eurovision | misses televote win | 97.5% |
| Czechia Eurovision | misses jury winner | 96.9% |
| Katy Perry pregnant | no confirmation by June 30 | 94.5% |
| Bruno Mars Spotify | no global #1 in April | 90.0% |
| Drake Iceman | no release by March 31 | 100.0% |
| Serbia Eurovision | finishes outside top 10 | 88.0% |