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Eurovision 2026 markets are exploding with volume as semis approach. Bettors see almost no shot for Austria to take the crown (99.9% no), but closer calls like Denmark's second semi win (33.5% yes) and Finland leading Nordics (70% yes) pull in trades. Switzerland's advance odds sit near even at 44%.
Drake dominates the hip-hop side. His Iceman album has 98% odds to debut #1 on Billboard 200, though first-week sales under 600k looks solid at 71% and zero weeks at #1 elsewhere. 21 Savage feature hits 73% yes. Here's the Push Ups diss that kicked off the album hype:
Ariana Grande's rumored Petal album by August 31 hangs in a nailbiter at 52.5% yes. Olivia Rodrigo's "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" first-week sales tilt over 200k (67% no to under). Taylor Swift stays baby-free before marriage at 95% odds. All these odds from Polymarket prediction markets.
Winners (Highest Probability)
| Market | Predicted Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Austria Eurovision win | Austria misses Eurovision 2026 win | 99.9% |
| Bad Bunny Spotify #2 May | Bad Bunny skips second in monthly Spotify listeners | 99.6% |
| ICEMAN BB200 debut | Drake's ICEMAN debuts at #1 on Billboard 200 | 98.0% |
| Taylor Swift preg before marriage | Taylor Swift not pregnant before Travis Kelce marriage | 95.4% |
| Czechia Eurovision jury win | Czechia does not win jury vote | 95.3% |
| Zendaya pregnant by June | Zendaya skips pregnancy announcement by June 30 | 93.5% |
| 21 Savage on ICEMAN | 21 Savage featured on Drake's ICEMAN | 73.0% |
| Finland best Nordic | Finland tops Nordic countries at Eurovision | 70.0% |