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Polymarket's latest music markets spotlight wild Spotify bets and Eurovision tension. Justin Bieber and Nicki Minaj's "Beauty and a Beat" carries slim odds for US Spotify #1 this week ending May 15, but bettors peg it at just 1.1%, meaning no crown coming. Still, throwback power plays like this show fanbases pushing old hits hard.
Check the official video that's racked up over a billion views:
PinkPantheress teaming with Zara Larsson on "Stateside" fares even worse at 2.5% for global Spotify top. Bedroom pop collabs testing the waters?
PinkPantheress delivers in the official video:
Olivia Rodrigo locked at 100% for a US #1 hit this May. Her streak continues unbroken. Pooh Shiesty faces 65.5% odds of fresh charges by May 31, keeping rap drama alive. Charli XCX's next album by July 31 sits dead even at 50/50. Eurovision semis ramp up, with Finland near-certain (99.9%) to advance first round.
Winners (Highest Probability)
| Market | Predicted Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Olivia Rodrigo US #1 May | Olivia Rodrigo lands a #1 hit on US Spotify in May | 100% |
| Finland Eurovision Semi 1 | Finland advances through the first Eurovision semi-final | 99.9% |
| Bad Bunny Spotify #2 May | Bad Bunny does not take second in monthly Spotify listeners | 99.6% |
| Georgia Eurovision Semi 1 win | Georgia does not win the first Eurovision semi-final | 99.4% |
| BB200 #1 albums 2026 | Fewer or more than 10-12 albums hit Billboard 200 #1 in 2026 | 100% |