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Country music is crushing it on Polymarket's newest prediction markets. Ella Langley's "Choosin' Texas" sits at 98.8% odds to claim the Billboard Hot 100 #1 spot for the week of May 16. Noah Kahan's album "The Great Divide" follows close with 98.6% for Billboard 200 top position same week. These locks show real staying power after their strong debuts last week.
Here's Ella owning the vibe in her official lyric video:
Noah delivers raw emotion in "The Great Divide":
Eurovision 2026 semis are next week. Bets lean hard against upsets. Armenia and Georgia face 95% odds of missing semi-final wins. Finland looks solid at 83.5% for a top 5 grand final finish.
Spotify's May listener battles rage on. Drake holds 83.5% for a #1 global hit sometime this month. Olivia Rodrigo is a lock for US #1 song and her new album by August 31 at 98.7%. Justin Bieber chases the monthly top artist spot. Odds sit at just 35.5%.
Olivia's "bad idea right?" captures that chaotic energy:
Drake's beef track "Push Ups" fuels the fire:
Winners (Highest Probability)
| Market | Predicted Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Ella Langley Hot 100 week of May 16 | Choosin' Texas reaches #1 | 98.8% |
| Noah Kahan BB200 week of May 16 | The Great Divide tops the album chart | 98.6% |
| Olivia Rodrigo new album | releases original album by August 31 | 98.7% |
| Drake Spotify Global May | lands a #1 hit during the month | 83.5% |
| Finland Eurovision 2026 | finishes in the top 5 | 83.5% |